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04/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Blackhawks could have earned more style points in their opening round series against Nashville, but in the NHL playoffs the maxim is survive and advance, and according to that rule they did just fine.
The road block in advancing past the second round this spring looks a lot like it did a year ago, when Chicago ousted Vancouver in six games during the Western Conference semifinals. The main difference in 2010 is that the Blackhawks, who lost in last year's West finals to Detroit, have home-ice advantage this spring instead of the Canucks.
Chicago was dealt a pair of surprising 4-1 losses by the Predators in the conference quarterfinals, but the Hawks also notched a pair of shutouts en route to winning the series in six.
Those shutouts went a long way towards proving Antti Niemi is a legitimate playoff goaltender, something not everybody was sure of heading into this postseason.
Niemi entered the 2009-10 season with just three games at the NHL level, but still outplayed Cristobal Huet for the No. 1 job. The Finnish netminder's first playoff series was largely a success, as Niemi posted strong numbers with a 2.15 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage.
Yet, it seems that the goaltending situation is not completely settled and we could possibly see Huet in this series if Niemi happens to struggle early. Huet, however, is just 6-10 with a 2.73 GAA in 16 career playoff games.
The Blackhawks know that goaltending is not what makes them a Cup favorite and the club played to their strengths against the Predators. Chicago is able to cull its scoring from all sorts of different places, including the blueline, and it makes the Hawks a difficult team to match up with.
All told, 10 different Chicago skaters scored goals in Round 1 and four players tallied more than once. Patrick Kane led the club with four goals and also added three assists, while captain Jonathan Toews paced the team with eight points on two goals and six helpers.
Marian Hossa, who played on the losing team in the Stanley Cup Finals in each of the last two years (Pittsburgh, 2008; Detroit, 2009), failed to register a point in the first two games of the Nashville series but notched one goal and six assists in the final four contests. His lone goal was a big one, as it won Game 5 in overtime for the Blackhawks.
Patrick Sharp also turned in a solid series for Chicago, notching three goals and seven points.
The Blackhawks had three defensemen with three or more points in the series, and surprisingly, none of them were named Duncan Keith. Chicago's Norris Trophy finalist had one goal and one assist against Nashville and was a minus- four for the series.
Perhaps logging 27 minutes and 57 seconds of ice time per game -- 5:40 more than any other Blackhawk averaged -- wore Keith down a bit. Chicago head coach Joel Quenneville may want to dial Keith's playing time down a notch if he wants him to have anything left for a deep playoff run.
Brent Seabrook, who like Keith won a gold medal with Team Canada at the 2010 Winter Olympics, led Chicago's blueline with four points in the series. Niklas Hjalmarsson wasn't far behind with a goal and three points and also paced the team with a plus-six rating.
Having Brian Campbell back on the blueline for an entire series could also give Chicago a boost in this series. Campbell missed the final month of the regular season with a broken collarbone suffered on a hit by Washington's Alex Ovechkin, but he returned for the final three games of the Nashville series.
Campbell failed to register a point against the Predators, but was second among Chicago defensemen with 38 points during the regular season. The Blackhawks could use the help on the point during the power play after scoring at a solid, but unspectacular, 17.4 percent clip (4-of-23) with the man advantage in Round 1.
Chicago's penalty kill was very strong against the Preds, thwarting 96.3 percent (26-of-27) of Nashville's power-play chances.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS (3rd seed, West)
REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 49-28-5
2010 PLAYOFFS: Defeated Los Angeles 4-2 in conference quarterfinals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Blackhawks made it to the conference finals last year at Vancouver's expense so it shouldn't be too hard for the Canucks to get motivated for this series.
The Canucks faced a dangerous opponent in the opening round this year in the young and talented Los Angeles Kings. Despite trailing 2-1 in the series, Vancouver stormed back to win the next three games and advance.
The next step, though, will be much more difficult. Vancouver has lost in its last four trips to the conference semifinals and hasn't made it past the second round since 1994, when the Canucks lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to the New York Rangers.
Roberto Luongo is the key for Vancouver finally getting back to the conference finals. The goaltender is considered by many to be the most-talented in the world, but has faltered at times for the Canucks in the playoffs. Hopefully, a 5-0 record in leading Canada to gold at the Vancouver Games will give Luongo the confidence he needs to carry the Canucks far into the postseason.
Luongo had poor overall numbers in the opening round against the Kings, posting a 2.92 GAA and a .893 save percentage. He was even pulled midway through Game 3 after giving up four goals on 16 shots.
The good news for Vancouver is that Luongo played his best hockey in the final two games of the series, allowing a total of four goals on 58 shots in Games 5 and 6.
Mikael Samuelsson was the offensive star for Vancouver in the opening round, notching seven goals to tie a club record for most markers in a single series. The Swedish winger also added four assists to lead the Canucks with 11 points in his first postseason series with the team. Samuelsson, who won a Stanley Cup title with Detroit in 2008, signed a three-year deal with Vancouver last summer.
Samuelsson was placed on a line with his countryman, twin brothers Daniel and Henrik Sedin, midway through the series with Los Angeles. Daniel Sedin had four goals and 10 points in the series, while Henrik recorded eight points on one goal and seven assists. Henrik won the Art Ross Trophy as the league's leading scorer during the regular season with 112 points.
Canucks head coach Alain Vigneault made the switch to Samuelsson on the top line due to the struggles of Alexandre Burrows, who led the team with 35 goals during the regular season, but managed only an empty-net tally against the Kings.
Burrows was moved down to the second line with centerman Ryan Kesler and winger Mason Raymond. Kesler had a solid first round with one goal and five assists.
Vancouver is often thought of as relying too heavily on the Sedin brothers for scoring, but the Canucks actually received goals from 12 different players against the Kings. Steve Bernier and Pavol Demitra were the only skaters other than Samuelsson and Daniel Sedin to score multiple times, with Bernier tallying four times and Demitra scoring twice.
The Canucks also received solid production from the back end, as four Vancouver defensemen tied for the team lead with three points each. Kevin Bieksa, Alexander Edler, Christian Ehrhoff and Sami Salo all notched a goal and two assists in the series.
After the top-four defensemen, the Canucks will fill the remaining two blueline spots with Aaron Rome, Shane O'Brien and Andrew Alberts. Rome played in just one game during the first round while battling an ankle injury and it's questionable if he'll be available for Game 1 against the Blackhawks.
Vancouver's biggest problem in the opening round against the Kings came in killing off penalties. The Canucks allowed 10 goals on 26 short-handed situations in the conference quarters for the worst PK percentage (61.5 percent) among any team in the first round. The club was 17th in the league during the regular season, killing off 81.9 percent of the opposition's chances with the man advantage.
The Canucks balanced scoring made them a much better team on the power play against LA. Vancouver tallied six goals on 24 power-play chances (25 percent) in Round 1.
MATCHUP
The Blackhawks and Canucks playoff meeting a year ago marked the third time the club's battled in the postseason and the first time since the 1995 conference semifinals.
Vancouver's only series victory over Chicago was in the 1982 conference finals, when the Canucks ousted the Blackhawks in five games before getting swept by the New York Islanders in the Stanley Cup Finals.
The Canucks and Blackhawks played an entertaining season series in 2009-10, with each team winning twice over four games.
The last time the clubs met was in Chicago on March 5 in what was a nightmare game for Luongo, who was yanked after giving up five goals on 14 shots in the first period. Chicago went on to win that game by a 6-3 count. Overall, the 31-year-old Luongo is 11-8 with a tie in 21 career regular season stars against the Blackhawks.
Niemi suffered a similar fate in the previous meeting on Jan. 23 in Vancouver. Chicago's netminder was also pulled in the first period of that game after surrendering three goals on 12 shots in what turned out to be a 5-1 victory for the Canucks. However, Niemi also had a shutout this year in Vancouver, stopping 30 shots in a 1-0 victory over the Canucks on Nov. 22.
The Canucks have the goaltending edge in this series and are only slightly behind the Blackhawks in terms of scoring depth. In fact, Vancouver had one more goal than Chicago during the regular season, posting 271 goals to the Blackhawks' 271.
Luongo needs to make this series his signature performance in order to make up for Chicago's advantage on the blueline. Vancouver's offense can help out the goaltender by getting to Niemi early and forcing Quenneville to make a change in net.
This figures to be a highly-entertaining series and one that will turn end with the Canucks finally getting back to the conference finals.
Sportsbook Betting Lines predicted outcome: Canucks in 7
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Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .
Get all your baseball betting lines, MLB lines and MLB team props at the My Sportbook.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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