Hardcore Hoop Talk: The Free Agent Fantasy

Basketball Betting Lines

07/02/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The quickest way to build a championship contender is through free agency. That was the message delivered by Donnie Walsh when he replaced Isiah Thomas as president of basketball operations for the Knicks in April of 2008. And it seems like many of his fellow NBA executives believe in that philosophy too. However history says that is not the formula for building a championship caliber team but rather fool's gold.

Since Tom Chambers became the first-ever unrestricted free agent to sign a contract in 1988 with the Suns, there has been only one major free agent signing that directly led to an NBA title -- the Lakers' signing of Shaquille O'Neal in 1996. Even with Shaq joining fellow superstar Kobe Bryant along with Derek Fisher and Robert Horry it took LA four years to win a championship. But there's no argument he was the missing piece to the puzzle.

However, that free agent signing was the exception not the rule to putting together a championship roster. Since the advent of free agency, the nucleus of the title teams were built through the draft and trades. The Pistons, Bulls, Spurs and Lakers are just a few of the examples:

Pistons: Isiah Thomas (draft), Joe Dumars, (draft), Dennis Rodman (trade), Vinnie Johnson (trade), John Sally (draft)

Bulls: Michael Jordan (draft), Scottie Pippen (draft), Horace Grant (draft), Toni Kukoc (draft), Rodman (trade)

Spurs: David Robinson (draft), Tim Duncan (draft), Tony Parker (draft), Manu Ginobili (draft)

Lakers: Bryant (trade), Pau Gasol (trade), Andrew Bynum (draft), Lamar Odom (trade)

It's not a coincidence that this has been the formula for putting together NBA championship teams. By building through the draft and trades you keep your payroll down and give yourself the financial flexibility to add one key player through free agency as the Lakers did this past season with Ron Artest.

The Bulls, with a nucleus of Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Taj Gibson in place, and the ability to sign two max players, are the only team that would put themselves in championship contention by going the free agent route this time around.

When you look at the supporting casts of the other teams that will be active in the free agent market, they'll still be a long way from winning a title and most likely never will even if they add a major player to their roster.

Take the Knicks for example. Does Walsh really believe a lineup of LeBron James, Amare Stoudemire, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Eddy Curry is going to put the fear of God into the Lakers?

Walsh failed to inform the media and public to the fact that once you add two max contracts to a team with a depleted roster you don't have enough money to fill all the numerous holes to compete for a title. You're left with a good team that can't be a real player in the free agent market anymore and won't be drafting high enough to get an impact player.

Certainly no team is going to turn down the chance to bring "The King" in, but his addition alone will not make the likes of Miami, Dallas, New Jersey, and the Clippers championship contenders.

Teams that have built through the draft and kept their payroll down like Oklahoma City, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and Portland with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden, will eventually be in a position to land one key player in free agency that could lead to an NBA championship.

Quick Dribbles

Six years, $119 million dollars for playoff bust Joe Johnson? I recommend a complete psychiatric examination for the Hawks' ownership group. Ditto for Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley, who reportedly will re-sign free agent Rudy Gay to a five-year, $80 million dollar contract.

Milwaukee is ready to come up the with the bucks (get the play on words) for John Salmons, who averaged 19.9 points in his 30-game stint after being acquired from the Bulls. It's a five-year, $39 million dollar deal.

Richard Jefferson opted out of the final year of his contract with the Spurs, thus forfeiting $15 million. He reportedly wants to return to the New York area to play for the Knicks or Nets and is seeking a multi-year deal in the $8 million to $10 million dollar range. Nothing like going for the big haul at the age of 30 when you're coming off your worst season since your rookie year.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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