Flyers head back home to take on Maple Leafs

Hockey Betting Lines

03/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers return to the Wachovia Center for an important four-game homestand that begins with tonight's encounter with the road-challenged Toronto Maple Leafs.

Philadelphia just completed a stretch of four consecutive road games with a 2-1-1 record, although the playoff contenders did end the trek with a pair of losses. After being routed by Florida in a 7-4 defeat on Wednesday, the Flyers couldn't hold onto a third-period lead in Friday's 3-2 overtime setback at Buffalo.

The Flyers had grabbed a 2-1 advantage on the Sabres when Mike Richards scored unassisted off a Buffalo turnover with 8:58 left in regulation, but the hosts tied the score on an Adam Mair goal nearly three minutes later. The Sabres emerged victorious when Tim Connolly knocked home a rebound of Toni Lydman's shot from the point midway through the extra session.

We definitely could have won this game. We played well," said Philadelphia goaltender Michael Leighton. "Things just didn't bounce our way."

Leighton finished with 32 saves for Philadelphia, which also received a goal from Simon Gagne in the loss.

Coming back to the Wachovia Center, where the Flyers have won three in a row and nine of their last 11 outings, may help Philadelphia get back on track. So could a matchup with the lowly Maple Leafs, who sit in the Eastern Conference basement with 52 points and are a woeful 9-18-7 away from home this season.

Toronto did come through with a road victory on Saturday, however, after besting rival Ottawa in a shootout by a 2-1 count. That ended a string of four straight losses for the Maple Leafs, including a 3-2 shootout setback Thursday in Boston in the opener of this current three-game trip.

Phil Kessel and Nikolai Kulemin each scored for Toronto in the deciding phase of Saturday's triumph, with goaltender Jonas Gustavsson stoning both Ottawa skaters he faced to help his team stop a seven-game road losing streak.

Gustavsson was also sharp in regulation and overtime, turning aside 22 of 23 shots prior to the shootout. Kessel, Toronto's leader with 22 goals this season, accounted for the Leafs' only tally in regulation.

"It was a hard fought game out there," said Kessel afterward. "A lot of hits, a lot of fights out there. We played well and got the two points and that's the most important thing."

Toronto did not come away unscathed, however, as forwards John Mitchell and Fredrik Sjostrom were both forced to exit Saturday's contest with upper-body injuries and may not be available tonight.

Jean-Sebastian Giguere, who has posted a solid 2.31 goals against average and two shutouts in six games since coming to the Leafs in a trade with Anaheim last month, will likely be between the pipes for Toronto this evening. He'll be facing a Philadelphia squad that's racked up a whopping 14 goals in its last two matchups with Toronto held at the Wachovia Center, including a 6-2 win on January 6.

The Maple Leafs have lost in each of their past three trips to Philadelphia, but did deal the Flyers a 4-0 loss in Ontario on January 14. Vesa Toskala, now a member of the Calgary Flames, had 38 saves for Toronto in that one.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.