Big Ten showdown pits Badgers against Gophers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2012 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A couple of teams jockeying for position in the ultra-competitive Big Ten Conference meet in Minneapolis tonight, as another chapter of the legendary "Border War" is added when the Minnesota Golden Gophers play host to the 21st-ranked Wisconsin Badgers.

At present, Minnesota owns a 100-89 advantage in the all-time series, and the Gophers are 67-30 against the Badgers in Minneapolis. The last meeting between the two took place in Madison on December 28, 2010, and Wisconsin snapped a three-game losing streak against Minnesota by claiming a 68-60 victory.

Wisconsin is an impressive 18-6 on the season, and the team has won seven of its 11 conference bouts thus far. The Badgers recently had a six-game win streak snapped with a 58-52 loss at home to Ohio State last Saturday, dropping the team's home record to 11-4. UW has won its last three road games, and is 5-2 on enemy turf this season.

Minnesota is enjoying a successful campaign of its own, logging a 17-7 record, which includes a 12-2 ledger at home. Unfortunately, the Golden Gophers have gone just 5-6 in conference, although they've played better in recent weeks, winning two of their last three and five of their last seven. A 69-61 victory at Nebraska last Sunday was the team's most recent, and UM will play five of its remaining seven games of the regular season at home.

Wisconsin continues to play the kind of stifling defense only it can, as the Badgers are still the nation's top team in terms of points allowed (49.8 ppg). Foes are shooting just 36.5 percent from the field, which includes a dismal 26.2 percent showing from three-point range, and UW owns favorable margins in both rebounding (+3.2) and turnovers (+2.3) as well. Jordan Taylor (14.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.4 apg) is one of three players currently averaging double digits in the scoring column for coach Bo Ryan's club, which puts up 64.1 ppg on the strength of its 42.9 percent shooting from the floor, and 35.6 percent from beyond the arc. Unfortunately, while Taylor's scoring average rises to 16.1 ppg against conference opponents, the team's dips to 59.3 ppg while its average yield rises to 55.9 ppg. Ryan Evans scored 14 points to lead four players in double figures, but the Badgers shot just 40 percent from the floor in what turned out to be a six-point loss to Ohio State last weekend. Both teams struggled from long range, with UW going just 5-of-27 (.185) and OSU a paltry 1-of-7 (.143). The Buckeyes used a 13-3 edge in points from the foul line, as well as a 15-9 advantage in second-chance points to claim the victory.

The loss of star forward Trevor Mbakwe after only seven games should have spelled disaster for Minnesota, but coach Tubby Smith rallied his troops and the team has gone on to be a thorn in the side of many an opponent this year. At present, the Gophers have just a pair of 10 ppg scorers in Rodney Williams and Julian Welch, but the team as a whole is generating 69.2 ppg on 47.5 percent field goal efficiency and 36.0 percent from beyond the arc. The team's defensive effort holds the opposition to 63.3 ppg, with those foes shooting just 41.4 percent from the floor and 33.9 percent from three-point land. Since the start of Big Ten play, UM is netting nearly the same number of points as it permits (67.7 ppg to 67.4 ppg). Chip Armelin came off the bench to score 15 points to lead Minnesota to victory in its recent bout with Nebraska, while Welch was the only starter to reach double figures as he drained all three of his three-point tries en route to 10 points. As a team, the Gophers connected on 54.0 percent of their total shots, nailing 7-of-17 three-point attempts along the way, and they won the rebounding battle, 31-24, while holding the Cornhuskers to 43.8 percent field goal efficiency.

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Owens broke the bone leading to his right ring finger Sunday night and had a plate surgically attached to it Monday. Although Owens' hand was swollen and aching Wednesday, Dallas Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said he's optimistic the receiver will be back at work next week and catching passes a week from Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.

MySportsbook.com online sportsbook listed Terrell Owens with odds of 7-2 (or $7 paid out for every $2 bet) to return back for the game against Tennessee.

"I certainly wouldn't rule it out now," Parcells said, referring to Terrell Owens immediate return. "Maybe five days from now I might, but I wouldn't rule it out now. ... I know we're looking to try to get him moving around pretty good in the next day or so. So we'll see where we are."

Owens did not speak with reporters Wednesday, but said Sunday he'd be out two to four weeks. A return against the Titans would be 13 days after the surgery. The Cowboys were listed as an early -7 1/2 favorite vs. the Tennessee Titans for Week 4 at MySportsbook.com

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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